TUA TAGOVAILOA: A WHAT IF STORY
Ajay Allen - July 27, 2025
In the shifting landscape of college football, a single scholarship offer can change the direction of a program, and in some cases, the sport itself. In 2016, the University of Alabama secured a commitment from five star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, a left handed phenom from Saint Louis School in Honolulu, Hawaii. But what if Oregon had made their move earlier? What if the Ducks, with their vibrant Nike identity and Hawaii pipeline, had offered Tua first and landed him?
Tagovailoa committed to Alabama in May 2016 as part of the 2017 recruiting class. He spent his freshman year behind Jalen Hurts before delivering one of the most iconic moments in college football history.
A walk off touchdown in overtime of the national championship game against Georgia. He went on to lead Alabama’s offense in 2018 and 2019, cementing his place as a top NFL Draft pick in 2020.
In this alternate timeline, Tua signs with Oregon in 2017. At the time, the Ducks already had Justin Herbert at quarterback, a promising sophomore who was just starting to gain traction. With Herbert entrenched as the starter, Tua redshirts his freshman year under head coach Willie Taggart. When Taggart leaves for Florida State after one season, Mario Cristobal takes over and inherits one of the most electric quarterback talents in the country.
Instead of sitting behind Jalen Hurts, Tua spends his freshman year developing in Eugene. Justin Herbert, feeling the pressure of a future first rounder waiting in the wings, declares early for the 2018 NFL Draft, a move he considered in real life. Tua takes over in 2018 and immediately revitalizes Oregon’s offense. With weapons like Dillon Mitchell, Jaylon Redd, and a young CJ Verdell, Oregon transforms into a Pac-12 powerhouse. They reach the Rose Bowl, replacing Washington as the conference’s representative, and play a competitive game against Ohio State.
Tua enters the 2019 season as a Heisman favorite. Behind an elite offensive line anchored by Penei Sewell and supported by a stronger defense, Oregon beats Auburn in the season opener, a revenge game against Bo Nix, and runs the table to reach the College Football Playoff. The Ducks face LSU in the national championship, setting up a dream matchup between Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow. In a high scoring shootout, Oregon comes up just short, but Tua’s legend is cemented in Eugene.
This alternate reality has noticeable effects. Oregon becomes a national contender once again, attracting toptier talent and solidifying its Polynesian recruiting process. The Ducks are no longer just the team that once had Marcus Mariota. They become the school that launched Tua’s legacy. The quarterback room in Eugene becomes synonymous with greatness, with Mariota, Tua, and eventually Herbert all carrying the brand to the NFL.
Meanwhile, the ripple effect at Alabama is massive. Without Tua, Jalen Hurts remains the starter in 2017 and 2018, but the outcome of the 2017 national championship shifts. Georgia wins in overtime, Kirby Smart topples his former mentor, and Alabama enters the 2018 season without the same offensive spark. Mac Jones may still emerge later, but Alabama's trajectory is undeniably altered.
Justin Herbert’s career takes a different path as well. Without his senior year tape in 2019, he likely falls further in the 2018 or 2019 draft and may never land with the Chargers. His development could stall in a less quarterback-friendly system, meaning the NFL loses one of its brightest young stars as we know him today.
Tua still declares for the 2020 NFL Draft, but this time as an Oregon Duck. He’s selected top five, likely still by the Miami Dolphins, but his college legacy is rooted in the Pacific Northwest. Oregon reclaims it’s status as a quarterback factory, and the program’s momentum carries deep into the decade.
One early offer from Oregon could have rewritten the future of two powerhouse programs and changed the course of college football history.
